Kim Tae-woo, the People Power Party’s candidate for the Gangseo District Chief, who had persuaded residents that he had strong ties with the Yoon Seok-youl administration and could secure substantial welfare budgets, recorded a vote share of 39.37% and failed to secure victory. Photo by NJT.

Support Wanes for President Yoon Suk Yeul as Seoul District Results Indicate Shifting Voter Sentiments

By Byung Kee Park

Seoul, South Korea — According to recent South Korean opinion polls, approximately 30% of the population supports the ruling People Power Party, while an equal proportion backs the Democratic Party. Interestingly, the remaining 40% is divided into two main factions: 20% with conservative inclinations and 20% leaning progressive. Yet, this 40% possesses a moderate temperament, adapting their choice based on prevailing situations rather than showing unquestioning loyalty. For any party to emerge as dominant, capturing the hearts of this moderate population segment is crucial.

In the by-election held on the 11th for the office of the Gangseo District Chief in Seoul, the moderates notably supported the Democratic Party. As per the data released on the 12th by the Central Election Management Committee, the Democratic Party's Jin Gyo-hoon clinched victory with 56.52% of the votes (137,066 votes), outpacing the People Power Party's Kim Tae-woo, who secured 39.37% (95,492 votes). While Gangseo District has traditionally been a stronghold of the Democratic Party, Kim Tae-woo had won the previous district chief election.

Applying the 30-30 theory, it can be inferred that of the moderates, 9% leaned towards the People Power Party, while 26% favored the Democratic Party. However, this 26% support might indicate dissatisfaction with the Yoon Suk Yeol administration more than genuine endorsement of the Democratic Party. The Yoon government, preoccupied with foreign affairs, has faced criticism for neglecting domestic concerns, especially amidst a deteriorating economic situation. There's a widespread sentiment that the government is prioritizing its interests over public welfare, particularly with impending general elections six months away.

Internal divisions plague the People Power Party, distinctly demarcating pro-Yoon and anti-Yoon factions. The pro-Yoon coalition primarily consists of members affiliated with former president Lee Myung-bak. 

Political analysts predict that if President Yoon continues to lose public support, even his ardent supporters might abandon him. Talk of impeaching Yoon is gaining traction within political circles.

Political pundits believe that the leaders and supporters of the People Power Party, who previously ousted presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, could replicate the same with Yoon Suk Yeol. While President Yoon's controversies have not yet fully surfaced, he has faced accusations related to manipulating evidence during the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye. Yoon's perceived pro-Japan inclinations, excessive emphasis on ideology, neglect of economic risks, not meeting Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung, and controversial ministerial appointments have irked moderates. The economic risk is the most significant gripe against Yoon's administration.

Lee Jun-seok, the former leader of the People Power Party, who played a pivotal role in Yoon's narrow presidential election victory by a margin of 0.7%, expressed deep concern a day after the by-election. On Facebook, he lamented, "The saddest part now is the potential emergence of bigger and more pitiable self-interests that might cling to this failing system." Conversely, the party's leadership is downplaying the election loss, emphasizing its importance in restructuring rather than viewing it as a verdict on Yoon.

Cheon Ha-ram, another influential figure within the party, expressed skepticism about the current leadership stepping down and hinted at challenges in attracting quality candidates for the upcoming metropolitan elections. Meanwhile, former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min, who has openly criticized Yoon, called the by-election outcome "President Yoon Suk Yeul's defeat." 

Yet, the prevailing political commentary suggests that the possibility of Yoon choosing a path of reflection and reform is slim. Especially with the upcoming legislative elections, severe internal resistance is anticipated if Yoon continues to prioritize his loyalists. Calls for impeachment are growing louder, and with Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung avoiding detention, his party is gaining strength, further complicating matters for the Yoon administration. Presently, the Yoon government is undoubtedly in crisis.